The Directorate of National Intelligence offers these trend indicators for 2025.
*Economic Growth Fueling Rise of Emerging Players
In terms of size, speed, and directional flow, the transfer of global wealth and economic power
now under way—roughly from West to East—is without precedent in modern history.
This shift derives from two sources.
First, increases in oil and commodity prices have generated windfall profits for the Gulf states and Russia.
Second, lower costs combined with government policies
have shifted the locus of manufacturing and some service industries to Asia.
*Growth projections for Brazil, Russia, India, and China (the BRICs) indicate they will collectively match the original G-7’s share of global GDP by 2040-2050. China is poised to have more impact on the world over the next 20 years than any other country. If current trends
persist, by 2025 China will have the world’s second largest economy. (source: page vi)
*Existing multilateral institutions—which are large and cumbersome and were designed for a different geopolitical order—will have difficulty adapting quickly to undertake new missions, accommodate changing memberships, and augment their resources.
Nongovernmental organizations (NGOs)—concentrating on specific issues. (source: page xi)
*Whether global institutions adapt and revive—another key uncertainty—also is a function of leadership. Current trends suggest a dispersion of power and authority will create a global governance deficit. Reversing those trend lines would require strong leadership in the international community by a number of powers, including the emerging ones. (source: page xii)
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